If Russia Added To Terror List: What Happens Next?
Yesterday U.S. Senators Lindsay Graham and Richard Blumenthal met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv during their visit to Ukraine to promote their bipartisan effort in the U.S. Senate to have Russia declared a state sponsor of terrorism under U.S. law.
If added to the American state sponsors of terrorism (SST) list, Russia would be subject to a deeper raft of U.S. sanctions than those already imposed following February’s invasion of Ukraine. Such extreme restrictions on trade and financial dealings are rare in U.S. foreign policy. Presently, the list of state sponsors of terrorism is limited to just North Korea, Syria, Cuba, and Iran. But, given the depth of atrocity occurring in the war in Ukraine, there is broad bipartisan support in the U.S. legislature for adding Russia to this list. Doing so could have dramatic implications for future U.S. foreign policy.
Here are some of the implications of adding Russia to the SST list:
This last factor may carry the most significant knock-on impacts. Over the past decade, arms sales have constituted a considerable source of revenue for the Russian Federation. Some of Russia’s top buyers include key U.S. trade partners like China and India (SEE graphic below). With the war in Ukraine, Russian production needs may require them to import more goods and materials to bolster national arms production. If either India or China refused to cease defense-related trade with Russia, deep U.S. sanctions on either of them could have dramatic implications for the global economy.
This is several steps removed from where things are right now. But such dramatic possibilities may be just over the near horizon.
Originally published at https://davidnwaeze.substack.com on July 8, 2022.